El Niño decreases our risk of lowland snow events. It can mean we won’t have good odds at several rounds of sea-level snow. When temperatures are warmer than normal in the winter, the snow level tends to be higher in the mountains. The odds for El Niño impacts (in Washington state) are temperature averages more likely above normal, precipitation averages are equal of being above normal, below normal, or normal. There is a 71% probability this will be classified as a strong El Niño. It is 95% certain that El Niño will occur for January 2024 through February and March 2024. It’s always more favorable to play the odds.Ĭlimate prediction is better for showing the odds on what seasonal totals will be and what averages we will have at the end. When attempting to land all the forecasts for a three-month period, you can’t be a card counter if you don’t know how many decks are shuffled together. That’s okay for the impact of one storm that will affect one to two, sometimes three days, at a time. We know that the house of Mother Nature always wins but, a weather forecaster will always gamble at nailing down an expectation. We want to know what to expect when going into the "Weather Casino." The weighted odds can be used to determine a more difficult extended forecast, instead of flipping a coin. Seasonal outlooks are not used to dictate every single daily forecast, their odds however, can be applied.Įach year, a winter outlook is presented and the discussion of whether it is an El Niño, La Niña, or neutral year is had. Longer range forecasts use different weather models and data and must be applied with a broad brush. We can show you what is happening in this minute all the way into the following day with confidence. In the KOMO 4 Weather Center, we make your forecast daily, twice a day, for accuracy and the most recent weather model solutions. SEATTLE - There are days in Seattle it seems the weather forecast plays the odds on whether it will be dry with a rain shower or, rain showers with a dry break.
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